Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Sit the fuck down before you read this. MY THEORY: u/Leenixus was almost certainly correct in Thinking that "They" got margin called today. In After Hours 1M shares seemed to "disappear" from EOD Volume before "reappearing" in the EOD Volume later before AH close. I BELIEVE this is because Citadel got margin called @ 1127 today and therefor those 1M shares traded had to be re-routed or re-done or what have you. I can't be certain. I don't know if that's a thing or not but the concept makes a LOT of sense. Part 1: Introduction to the theory Part 2: Running the numbers Part 3: Pictures of the EOD Volume bouncing between 2.7M to 1.7M back to 2.7M during AH Part 4: Extra stuffing for your tinfoil hat & confirmation bias Part 5: Putting it all together _______________________________________________________
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
PART 1: INTRODUCTION TO THE THEORY
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
In case you live under a rock and don't spend every minute during trading hours staring at the $GME ticker & refreshing r/superstonk, today there was a 5 minute market wide trading halt from 1127-1132. There was also a case of 1M shares disappearing off of EOD (end of day) volume in AH (afterhours).

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
5 Minute Trading Halt - You can verify this yourself easily. credit to u/harbinger2nd for image

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
credit to u/lnning for image

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
*enhance*
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
I was reading This Post by Leenixus about how he has a theory Citadel got margin called today. Well, I think you're right u/Leenixus. Let me explain why.

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
In the comments under his post u/Wapata bought up an idea. So I ran some numbers
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
_______________________________________________________
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
PART 2: RUNNING THE NUMBERS
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
I looked at what the volume was when the market got halted at 1127.

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
From 0930-1000 there was 441.53k volume

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
From 1000-1030 there was 254.76k volume

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
From 1030-1100 there was 169.95k volume

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
& Finally from 1100-1130 there was 150.43k volume
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Lets add this into a calculator

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
1M shares nearly on the fucking dot.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Compare this to the AH candle again:

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
It's BARELY nudging over that 1M line. That looks a lot like 1.016M shares to me.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
_______________________________________________________
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
PART 3: PICTURES OF THE EOD VOLUME BOUNCING FROM 2.7M TO 1.7M BACK TO 2.7M DURING AH
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Here's some pictures of the EOD volume not being at the "correct" 2.7M today during AH:

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Webull

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Yahoo @ 1718 EDT

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Wealthsimple at 1.22M??? *by the way, it's at 1.23M now, it has not "corrected" like Yahoo & others. ????????? I've reached out to them, however replies usually take ~2 days

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Yahoo correcting EOD Volume by end of AH back to 2.7M, many other sources did same
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
_______________________________________________________
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
PART 4: EXTRA STUFFING FOR YOUR TINFOIL HAT & CONFIRMATION BIAS
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
At the end of the day we Todd Barker, the head of Citadel's Surveyor Capital step down.

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Sorry to hear that, Todd.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
In This Post by Leenixus they mentioned how todays price to get margin called is estimated* to have been $161.19

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
That's above the estimated $161.19 margin call trigger. Coincidence?
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
_______________________________________________________
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
PART 5: WRAPPING IT ALL TOGETHER + TLDR
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
1. Citadel Securities is one of the main market makers. Market makers route orders to the market. 2. When NYSE was halted for 5 minutes @ 1127, the total trade volume for $GME at the time was ~1M shares 3. It's estimated that $161.19 was the margin call trigger price today for the major short sellers of GME (This includes Citadel, theorized to be the biggest) The price was $162.32 when the market was halted 4. In After Hours 1M shares seemed to "disappear" from EOD Volume before "reappearing" in the EOD Volume later before AH close. I BELIEVE this is because Citadel got margin called @ 1127 today and therefor those 1M shares traded had to be re-routed or re-done or what have you. I can't be certain. I don't know if that's a thing or not but the concept makes a LOT of sense.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
It took over a month for us learn Archegos got Margin Called. So there may not be confirmation/proof saying otherwise for this theory for awhile. Regardless, the numbers add up and the rabbit hole leads to kens back yard.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
EDIT1: I should mention that just because a margin call happens, does NOT mean an institution needs to cover all their positions etc. Institutions CAN satisfy a margin call by having enough capital in your "margin account" (unsure if this would be called the same thing for hedge funds). If you can't satisfy it that way, one of two things can happen 1. You buy securities to cover your short positions or 2. Get liquidated EDIT2: Check out An ape explained the missing 1million volume. I think I'm gonna throw up.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
EDIT3: A very good point brought up by u/Jvic111 & my counter to it

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
Always encourage both sides of an argument! Thank you Jvic!
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
EDIT 3.1: This may be another possible solution to the argument above alternative to my guess
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
EDIT 4: More Counter DD (thanks to u/diskodik for pointing this out): https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n5pj2q/negative_1_million_on_volume_afterhours_wtf/?utm_ medium=android_app&utm_source=share My best guess against it: They started to run into problems because Citadel was in the process of getting margin called and it started to fuck with their processing due to the fact Citadel is one of the largest Market Makers for the NYSE. This would undoubtedly lead to difficulties processing orders/bids to the market https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5v5m0/an_ape_explained_the_missing_1million _volume_i/ Or This: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5yrd7/holy_shit_this_could_be_a_missing_link_be tween/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share (Courtesy of u/diskodik again!)
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
EDIT 5: Well, I guess I'm not sleeping tonight:

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
are you

Bandingkan dengan Inggris
fucking kidding me
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
My calculation: 1,016,670 Negative Candle: 1,015,953
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
None of this is financial advice. I'm an idiot. Pure speculation for entertainment purposes only.
Bandingkan dengan Inggris
tick tock ken