Comparer avec l'anglais
Comparer avec l'anglais
TL:DR; after doing two polls and comparing to another user's results, I estimate superstonk users own between 27 million and 35 million shares of GME. Edit: A very large point of misunderstanding is that the average shares are too high. In statistics, averages are easily skewed by outliers. For example, you have two groups: 3,3,3,2,4,2,4,3 and another 0,0,1,2,10,2,3,4. The average of both is 3. People have said it's impossible for the average person to own $25-30k worth of shares. I agree. In this study, 70% of the respondents own less than the average number of shares. The median user here owns 54 shares. This means that 50% of users here own $9000 or less (based on a stock price of $170) This is my last post (probably...) about the survey research I've done. I actually have work to do which I'm putting off for this, and I really have to get back to it. If anyone else wants to play around with it, the data is available in my previous post. First post:https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwziwn/users_of_superstonk_own_at_minimu m_9_million/ Previous post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myaxaw/update_retail_users_own_at_absolute _minimum_138/ Introduction There have been many opportunities for short sellers to cover their short positions since January, and it has been speculated many times this is the case. Publicly available data, such as SI%, have also predicted a decline from over 140% to around 20-40% recently. Adding to this, institutional ownership has been predicted to be around 137% on current bloomberg terminal updates
Comparer avec l'anglais
(https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mz6zq1/26042021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_info rmation/). But as of yet, and remains to be a crucial variable, is that retail ownership remains a mystery. It has been heavily speculated to be much greater than GME issued shares. Previously, I made a survey to estimate retail ownership. Since last time, I added another poll. The first poll I was unsure of how accurate (possibly because of trolling) the 500-1000 and >1000 categories were. I also tried to extrapolate the results to all of retail. To account for this I removed the 500-1000 and >1000 categories. Some users pointed out that even if I remove those groups, it's still comparing two different populations as we have little general retail data. They were valid arguments. Instead, I'm now making inferences only for superstonk users. The other issue with my first poll was overcrowding of the 100-500 groups and absence of a 0 share group. After splitting these into more groups and adding the 0 group, I see a more normal-like distribution of responses. Using a frequency distribution (https://www.spss- tutorials.com/frequency-distribution-what-is-it/), which is a type of statistical binning or histogram (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histogram), to predict superstonk ownership, I provide an estimate that superstonk GME ownership is at minimum 27 million shares, upwards of 35 million. Results Respondent Bin Distributions
Comparer avec l'anglais
Group Respondents Percentage Comparer avec l'anglais
0 4 0.250312891Comparer avec l'anglais
1 to 5 87 5.444305382Comparer avec l'anglais
6 to 10 106 6.633291615Comparer avec l'anglais
11 to 15 113 7.071339174Comparer avec l'anglais
16 to 20 90 5.63204005Comparer avec l'anglais
21 to 30 151 9.44931164Comparer avec l'anglais
31 to 50 199 12.45306633Comparer avec l'anglais
51 to 100 278 17.39674593Comparer avec l'anglais
101 to 150 159 9.949937422Comparer avec l'anglais
151 to 200 72 4.50563204Comparer avec l'anglais
201 to 300 106 6.633291615Comparer avec l'anglais
301 to 400 52 3.254067584Comparer avec l'anglais
401 to 500 43 2.690863579Comparer avec l'anglais
501 to 750 44 2.753441802Comparer avec l'anglais
751 to 1000 31 1.939924906Comparer avec l'anglais
1000 | 63 | 3.942428035 Total | 1598 | 100 Based on bin sizes and ranges within them, the 11 to 15 bin had the highest representation. In the bins as a whole, the highest number of respondents had between 51 to 100 shares, with 31 to 50 being the next largest bin. Estimation of 200,000 person population
Comparer avec l'anglais
Group 200000 people Shares min Shares max Comparer avec l'anglais
0 500.6257822 0 0Comparer avec l'anglais
Group 200000 people Shares min Shares max Comparer avec l'anglais
1 to 5 10888.61076 10888.61076 54443.05382Comparer avec l'anglais
6 to 10 13266.58323 79599.49937 132665.8323Comparer avec l'anglais
11 to 15 14142.67835 155569.4618 212140.1752Comparer avec l'anglais
16 to 20 11264.0801 180225.2816 225281.602Comparer avec l'anglais
21 to 30 18898.62328 396871.0889 566958.6984Comparer avec l'anglais
31 to 50 24906.13267 772090.1126 1245306.633Comparer avec l'anglais
51 to 100 34793.49186 1774468.085 3479349.186Comparer avec l'anglais
101 to 150 19899.87484 2009887.359 2984981.227Comparer avec l'anglais
151 to 200 9011.26408 1360700.876 1802252.816Comparer avec l'anglais
201 to 300 13266.58323 2666583.229 3979974.969Comparer avec l'anglais
301 to 400 6508.135169 1958948.686 2603254.068Comparer avec l'anglais
401 to 500 5381.727159 2158072.591 2690863.579Comparer avec l'anglais
501 to 750 5506.883605 2758948.686 4130162.703Comparer avec l'anglais
751 to 1000 3879.849812 2913767.209 3879849.812Comparer avec l'anglais
1000 | 7884.85607 | 7884856.07 | 7884856.07 Total | 200000 | 27081476.85 | 35872340.43 Using the results of the bins, it appears that superstonk users alone own 27.1 million to 35.9 million shares of GME. Average share ownership of Superstonk users = 27081476/200,000 to 35872340/200,000 ** = 135 - 179 shares/person** Using the data provided from the poll, I estimate Superstonk users own, on average, 135-179 shares per person. Edit: The median value is 54. This may be a better representation of the "mid-point" of the data. Comparison to other studies In another sampling method using direct share input and combing these into 5 ownership bins, /u/Kalaeman used a sample size of over 2000 to predict that the average superstonk user has around 166 shares (+/- 13) and the median user has 19 shares. Using this data to infer the population, they predicted that from 200,000 superstonk users, 33,200,000 +/- 2,668.433 shares are owned by users alone. Comparing this to my prediction of 27.08M - 35.9M million, I can't help but notice the value fits exactly inside my range... https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mylv9k/1_billion_share_owned_by_retail_co nfirmed/ /u/haydoboyo used 14A filing information to predict retail ownings and speculated that, if retail owns at least 3 shares each, the free float is owned. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxkwlb/double_the_short_interest_half_the _anxiety/ /u/InForTheSqueeze also used measurements from the GME 14A release and from brokers to estimate retail ownership. Although there are speculations in these, they support the findings of my
Comparer avec l'anglais
study. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxrdcb/updated_dd_i_did_the_math_there_is _literally_no/ /u/DiamondsApes a month ago looked at broker information to estimate retail ownership as well. https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m54vpq/serious_dd_retail_ownership_using_public_d ata/ /u/thedav1d 1 month ago also predicted retail ownership including options. https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mduj5t/dd_why_retail_is_holding_far_more_share s_than/ /u/brocaa used AI (which is a fancy word for regression analysis) to estimate the number of FTDs hidden by deep ITM options, and predicted around 140M. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbe rs_ai_detection/ /u/eastrod, building on work by /u/defj2(https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz7c7h/put_anomalies_pt1_were_127_ million_synthetic/), predicted that around 1.09 million puts were possibly used to reset 109 million FTD https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_th e_109mil/ /u/33a also shared their findings: Estimate based on comparison to other securities and general buying patterns https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwn95o/retail_is_the_whale/ Estimate based on fidelity order volume and level 2 order sizes https://old.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/msyhlq/fidelity_users_purchased_about_61_million_mo re/ /u/ColonelOfWisdom speculated, with relevant information, that hedge funds had plenty of opportunities to close their short positions leading up until now. However, these methods offer
Comparer avec l'anglais
the opportunity for these events to happen, not proof they happened https://www.reddit.com/r/GME_Meltdown_DD/comments/mxj6a9/faqs_about_the_gme_situ ation/. Support for their argument came from the diminishing of reported SI% from 140% to 20-40% as of last filing. https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/GME/, who originally predicted the FTD squeeze and how uncoiling the spring is a possibility, predicts that based on current trends of reported FTDs, the FTD cycle is diminishing and a squeeze is statistically unlikely. However, based on information here, it is entirely possible that the FTD cycle peaks are diminishing because of FTDs being hidden. And lastly, SI% has been around 20 - 40% (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gme - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key- statistics/). However, as mentioned, SI% can be hidden in options and through other methods. Now, the first question on your mind is: "can't users just mess with the results? I mean, that's what I would do. Polls are useless anyway." I would agree this is possible. For example, in my two polls, the percentage of respondents for each group changed a maxmimum of 2% over each bin. For large bins, this doesn't affect the results much. But over smaller bins with high underlying values (the >1000 bin, for example) the 2% is a large change. However, the underlying findings remain the same for either poll and for the other presented by /u/Kalaeman, reducing the likelihood of tampering. Methods I used a poll to estimate superstonk GME ownership using strawpoll. Original poll is available
Comparer avec l'anglais
here: https://www.strawpoll.me/42979202/r and the newest poll is available here: https://www.strawpoll.me/44432640/r. The settings were such that each IP address was only allowed to vote once, and Captchas were in place to prevent bots from interfering with results. The polls had 1200 and 1598 respondents, respectively. To try and minimize observation bias, such as through trolling, manipulation, or other means, I used a frequency binning method. Bin sizes were determined based on the first study to minimize overcrowding of bins. Frequencies observed from the 1598 sub sample were used to infer the ownership from 200,000 superstonk users. Average share ownership was calculated as predicted total shares / 200,000. At 1598 users, the margin of error was calculated to be approximately 2%. Edit: Some people have asked about how I calculated margin of error, so here it is. I did it two ways: A quick and dirty method where ME = Z X std.dev / sqrt(N). Note that although this gives you a general idea, it is meant to be applied to continuous data, not discrete data like mine is. The other method for margin of error, and the one I used, was calculated as such: For each bin, the formula ME = Z X sqrt((P(1- P))/N) where P = number of 'successes' or number of respondents in that bin, Z was the critical value for a 95% confidence interval (=1.96), and N is the total sample size. The bin with the the highest margin of error was the 51-100 bin, so it's value was used (1.54%) and rounded to 2% to be conservative.
Comparer avec l'anglais
Conclusion After comparing the results of three different surveys, all placed the number of shares owned by supserstonk users from 27M - 35M. I don't know what overall retail ownership is (although there have been predictions), but from superstonk users alone, it seems the free float is owned. Now, the question everyone wants answered: "Will this moon? When?" I don't know the answer to either question. But considering that the remaining free float is predicted to be 26-30 million ish and superstonk alone owns that much, I think it's safe to assume GME is significantly oversold. What should you do? Fuck if I know. The data here isn't telling you what to do, rather providing you with information to decide for yourself what fits your investing goals best. And of course, if you have any comments or criticisms, I'm all ears to them! I'll probably argue with you, but if you convince me with a good argument, I'll (hopefully) listen to your criticisms.