مقارنة بالإنجليزية
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice, I am not a Financial Advisor .
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
BEFORE READING
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
IMPORTANT LINKS FOR NEW MEMBERS TO r/superstonk
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• APE Security Protocol (how to secure and protect yourself online)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• DD Beginners Guide Pageمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Wikiمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Feel free to use the contents of this post however you want
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Don't worry about asking for permission to:مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Copy it / cross-post it / translate it / refine it / Use it in your own postsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Do whatever you wantمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Leave a comment if you have any questions
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• If you prefer Chat or do not meet karma requirements, you can hit me up on chat as wellمقارنة بالإنجليزية
I have found myself more active on Twitter than I ever really expected to be and do what I can to support the SuperStonk and the broader Ape Community, so feel free to follow me if you want to see things like the below:
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Future DD Notifications, and sharing of DD from other contributors and other importantمقارنة بالإنجليزية
SuperStonk Info
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Shit-posting with the other Apes in the communityمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Antagonizing Market Adversaries, MSM Shills, etc.مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Weaponization of Social Mediaمقارنة بالإنجليزية
SERIES PREFACE
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
WIP portions will be linked in the future, but I have included the high-level frame of what will be covered (subject to change)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Part 1 - The Key Market Concepts that Make The MOASS Possible and Other Important Terminology - YOU ARE HERE
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Stock/Securities Conceptsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Trade Positionsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Market Participantsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Important Market/Trade Mechanicsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• MOASS Breakdown of "How"مقارنة بالإنجليزية
This Part overlaps a lot with content in The MOASS Thesis Summary DD (The MOASS Summary goes into a little more depth on the GME Thesis so it may be a good read if you have not checked it out in the DD Beginners Guide Menu), but includes some refinements
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Part 2 (WIP) - MOASS Mechanics, Landscape, Atmosphere, and Tactics: What "Normal" Looks Like in the Months/Weeks Leading to MOASS
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Tacticsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o MSM Propagandaمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Community Infiltrationمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Price Manipulationمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Steganographyمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Mechanicsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Loopholesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Patterns and Cyclesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• What does Normal Look Like (Expectations to set)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Price Movementمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o MSM Contentمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Shill Activityمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Part 3 (WIP) - MOASS Mindset and Ways to Navigate
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Think Criticallyمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Understand "Why" You Believe in Your Thesis and the Basics "How" the Thesis is Possibleمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Don't be afraid to ask questions to become learnedمقارنة بالإنجليزية
INTRODUCTION / INTENTION OF POST - PART 1
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Part 1 of this DD series is intended to break down the main market concepts that make the MOASS possible. These are all Fundamental Concepts that are not unique to GME. These terms are key to understanding the MOASS Thesis and speculated value of a GME investment. Hyperlinks to Investopedia, "the world's leading source of financial content on the web", have been included for most market terms and concepts and it is recommended to check them out if they are not clear. We will be breaking down some of the more complex terms and concepts within the post and framing them within the context of GME. Table of Contents for Key Concepts 1. Stocks Concepts a. Share/Stock b. Synthetic Shares c. Outstanding Shares d. Restricted Shares e. The Float 2. Trade Positions a. Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock b. Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock c. Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock 3. Market Participants a. Retail Investors b. Institutional Investors c. Market Makers d. Prime Brokers (Broker Dealers) and Brokers e. Clearinghouses
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
f. Mainstream Media (MSM)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
4. IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS a. Fails to Deliver (FTD) b. Margin c. Margin Calls d. Margin Calls Who Calls Who e. Short Squeeze 5. MOASS Order of Operations
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
1 - STOCKS CONCEPTS
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
1.1 - Shares/Stock
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Stocks and Shares are often used interchangeablyمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Technically "shares" would represent how many of a specific company's stock, whereمقارنة بالإنجليزية
buying multiple "stocks" would main that shares of multiple company's were bought
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o ex. I bought 2 stocks; 10 shares of GME, and 60 shares of CHWYمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• There are different classes of shares that are distinguished on their voting rights, salesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
charges, and other factors
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Classes of shares have relatively complex dynamics, but I will not goمقارنة بالإنجليزية
further into them here, as it is not as relevant to GME
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
1. 2 - Synthetic Shares
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Synthetic Shares are the financial instruments that get produced through Naked Shorting
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Not to be confused with synthetic options positions, which are legal/legitimate tradeمقارنة بالإنجليزية
strategies that "simulate" the profits/losses as if the trader actually held those shares
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Synthetic shares entitle the owner to all of the same rights as an investor owning a non-مقارنة بالإنجليزية
synthetic share
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Cases where there is an excessive amount of synthetic shares point to the possibility thatمقارنة بالإنجليزية
a stock is being abused or manipulated
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Cannot be easily measured due to limited public transparency at the Market Maker andمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Prime Broker level
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
1.3 - Outstanding Shares
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
The number of Outstanding shares encompasses the amount of issued shares held by all shareholders (both private and public)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• It is possible for there to be more shares outstanding through Naked shorting, whichمقارنة بالإنجليزية
produces Synthetic shares
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• The number of issued AND synthetic shares outstanding is very difficult to measure, asمقارنة بالإنجليزية
they are only recorded on the books of the market makers generating synthetic shares and the prime-brokers they trade through
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o These parties are not incentivized to be transparent and actively obscureمقارنة بالإنجليزية
these numbers, as the practice of naked shorting excessively is fraudulent and illegal
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
1.4 - Restricted Shares
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Restricted shares include the number of issued shares held by insiders of the company
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• These shares are not publicly traded on the stock marketمقارنة بالإنجليزية
1.5 - The Float
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
The Float, or Floating Stock is the number of shares of stock that are available to be publicly traded (the number of Outstanding shares minus the amount of Restricted shares that are owned by insiders).
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• In theory, the number of shares owned by retail investors and institutional investors shouldمقارنة بالإنجليزية
not exceed the float
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• GME’s float total is currently ~56.89 Million shares (as of 6/10/21)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
2 - TRADE POSITIONS
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
2.1 - Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
When an investor buys a stock they are considered long on it (this is the type of position most people associate with trading stocks)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Not to be confused with a long-term investmentمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• In other words, holders of long positions have a positive number of sharesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• To close a long position the owner would sell their shares on the stock marketمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a long position is: 1. Buy the stock 2. Hold it until the price of it increases to a desired amount 3. Sell it for a profit
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
2.2 - Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
When a short seller shorts a stock they hold a short position on the stock, or owe the party they borrowed from however many shares they shorted
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Not to be confused with a short-term investmentمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Investors with short positions effectively are in debt or owe the number of shares thatمقارنة بالإنجليزية
they have shorted and can be considered negative on the stock
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• To close that position, short-sellers must buy a number of shares equal to the size of theirمقارنة بالإنجليزية
short position (buying to close a short position is known as covering)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Short positions must be reported to regulators (unlike naked short sales)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a short position: 1. Borrow a share owned by a lender 2. Sell the stock that was borrowed 3. Gaining the cash based on the price it was at the time it was “shorted” 4. Pay interest as a percentage of the stock's value 5. Since this is a percentage the cost of interest increases if the stock's value increases 6. Hold the position until the price has dropped to a desired price 7. Buy the stock on the open market 8. Ideally the stock is bought back at a lower price than originally borrowed for so the investor can pocket the difference 9. Return the share back to the lender
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
2.3 - Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Naked Shorting effectively allows a Short Seller, working with a market maker, to short a stock using a without having a borrowed share like normal short selling
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Naked short sales do NOT have to be reported the same way as normal "Short Sales" andمقارنة بالإنجليزية
can be "hidden"
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Failures to Deliver the shares that were "fake-borrowed" to the buyer areمقارنة بالإنجليزية
on of the main ways to find evidence of naked shorting
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Due to a loophole and lack of oversight by regulation, Naked short selling can be used toمقارنة بالإنجليزية
manipulate the price of certain stocks
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o This type of trade illegal outside of specific situations involving Marketمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Makers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Naked shorting was targeted for tighter regulation during the financial crisis of 2008 butمقارنة بالإنجليزية
enforcement has unfortunately not been effective in preventing it from manipulating the market Basic flow of obtaining/closing a naked short position (kind of complex and involves two specific parties for 2 initial trades called a married put) 1. A Short Seller "A" buys 100 shares from a Market Maker "Z" who can technically sell them without locating them a. Market Maker is Naked Shorting the stock, and the Short Seller is receiving 100 synthetic shares 2. Short Seller "A" now buys a Put Option (1 options contract is worth 100 shares) from Market Maker "Z" who is the writer of the put (Writing a put does not require the writer to have the shares on hand) a. Writing/selling a put nets +100 shares to the Market Maker, which results in the -100 shares that were naked shorted to be neutralized, so the Market Maker no is at a neutral position (Market Makers generally try to remain net 0 on trades b. Short Seller "A" now has 100 shares that can be short sold (they "borrowing" the synthetic shares the Market Maker effectively printed out of thin air), and one put contract that they can make money on as long as the price goes down 3. The steps or the short seller are basically the same as a normal short sale now (2.2 steps 2-8), however, interest from the Short seller does not need to be paid to a lender (no one is formally lending it) a. The premium from the put being purchased from the Market Maker is how they benefit b. Short Seller "A" now has a short position that they can cover simply by
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
buying 100 shares, which would cancel out the synthetic short position
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
3 - MARKET PARTICIPANTS
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
3.1 - Retail Investors
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Retail Investors, also known as individual investors, are your average investors (not aمقارنة بالإنجليزية
company or organization)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Referred to as the "Dumb Money" by Wall Street and the "professional" financialمقارنة بالإنجليزية
community
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Reddit communitiesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• u/DeepFuckingValue (@TheRoaringKitty on Twitter)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
3.2 - Institutional Investors
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Institutional Investors are organizations that invest on individuals' behalf
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Examples of Institutional Investorsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Endowment Fundsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Commercial Banksمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Mutual Fundsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Hedge fundsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Pension fundsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Insurance companiesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Notable institutional Investors involved in the GME Saga so far
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• RC Ventures LLC (LONG)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o To Apes: Ryan "Buckle Up" Cohen, AKA GameStop Chairman, AKA Bringerمقارنة بالإنجليزية
of SHF Tears 🥰
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o To SHFs and Market Manipulators: Doomمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• BlackRock (Long)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Vanguard Group (Long)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Fidelity (Long) - May not have an active position on GME Specificallyمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Melvin Capital (Short)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Shitadel Advisors (Short)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Point72 (Short)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
3.3 - Market Makers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Market Makers can be Hedge Funds, Brokers, or Prime Brokers, who, rather than investing and holding long or short positions, they profit by ensuring there is liquidity in the market buy simultaneously submitting buy AND sell orders close to the current price (they play both sides of the market and must always have shares to buy and sell)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Market Makers ensure that if some another investor wants to buy or sell shares near theمقارنة بالإنجليزية
current price of a stock, there is a corresponding buyer/seller on the other side of the trade offering to trade (for availability essentially)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o They will normally offer to buy at an amount that is a bit lower (generallyمقارنة بالإنجليزية
fractions of a percent away) than the last price a share was sold for, or sell at a price that was a bit higher than the last price a share was sold for Ex. Lets say current share price is $200$; A Market Maker might have a buy order for 100 shares at $199.75, and have sell orders for 100 shares at $200.25, so assuming both of those trades execute, they net $50 on those 100 shares ($0.50 * 100 shares)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Generally, Market Makers intend to remain Net Neutral on their positions,مقارنة بالإنجليزية
making money based on volume traded, rather than holding positions long enough for them to increase or decrease
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o They employ High Frequency Trading systems (computers) and algorithmsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
to facilitate trading
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• When you buy and sell stock those trades are often trading between you and a marketمقارنة بالإنجليزية
maker
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Market makers get "special rules" that enable them to keep liquidity in the market whenمقارنة بالإنجليزية
there is low liquidity
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Naked shorting is one of the options Market Makers have when navigatingمقارنة بالإنجليزية
a trade that other investors do not have Notable Market Makers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Shitadel Securitiesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o While part of "Shitadel" this organization is separate from the Hedge Fundمقارنة بالإنجليزية
(Shitadel Advisors)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Virtu Financialمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Credit Suisse Securitiesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Deutsche Bank Securitiesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Goldman Sachs and Companyمقارنة بالإنجليزية
3.4 - Prime Brokers (Broker Dealers) and Brokers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
A Prime-Broker is a bundled group of services that investment banks and other financial institutions offer to hedge funds and other large investment clients that need to be able to borrow securities or cash in order to engage in netting to achieve absolute returns
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Broker vs Prime-Brokerمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o A broker is an individual or entity that facilitates the purchase or sale ofمقارنة بالإنجليزية
securities, such as the buying or selling of stocks and bonds for an investment account. A prime broker is a large institution that provides a multitude of services, from cash management to securities lending to risk management for other large institutions.
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• While Brokers often route trades through Market Makers, MMs also through and receiveمقارنة بالإنجليزية
margin from Prime Brokers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o The Prime Broker is who would Margin Call Shitadel if their short positionمقارنة بالإنجليزية
gets too large or they bleed too much capital
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Retail investors trade through and receive margin from Brokers (not Prime Brokers)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
3.5 - Clearing Houses
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Clearinghouses are intermediaries between buyers and sellers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Finalize transactionsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Regulates delivery of assetsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Reports on trading dataمقارنة بالإنجليزية
3.6 - MSM (Mainstream Media)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Though not a traditional market participant (as in they are not trade/financial entities) the MSM is worth noting due to its role in influencing the financial atmosphere and landscape
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• The MSM (specifically the Financial Media in this case) overall is motivated throughمقارنة بالإنجليزية
sponsors and through ratings
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o They often cover topics based on what their sponsors want them to cover,مقارنة بالإنجليزية
and/or those that are more likely to draw many viewers
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• The Financial Mainstream media comes in many formsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o News Articlesمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Blogsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Televisionمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Newspaperمقارنة بالإنجليزية
4 - IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
4.1 - Failures to Deliver (FTD)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
FTDs occur when a buyer of a stock ends up not having the money to purchase the stock that they traded for OR, when a short seller does not own the stock at the time of settlement
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• FTDs are one of the main check-balances to naked shorting, so very high amounts ofمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Failures to Deliver are indicative of this
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Spoiler: GME has tons of FTDs reportedمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• FTDs are supposed to be covered within a specific time period in order to avoid violationمقارنة بالإنجليزية
of regulatory rules Cycles Our understanding regarding the "rules" of T+21 and T+35 Cycles was constructed in The SECs Key Points About Regulation SHO T+21 Cycle When there are Failures to Delivery that are not satisfied by the required time period (T+4 for Short Sales and T+6 for Long Sales, a Market Maker must satisfy the FTD within 13 days following the T+4/6
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• If it was for a long sale that Failed to Deliver, T+6 (7 Days including the trade day) plusمقارنة بالإنجليزية
another 13 consecutive days (14 Days including the failed settlement day), amounts to 21 days (this is where the T+21 Cycle comes From) T+35 Cycle If a FTD passes through T+21, there is a maximum time of 35 calendar days after the initial trade date that the firm clearing the trade must pre-borrow (purchase) the share to satisfy the FTD
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• In theory, to avoid breaking the rules, Failures to Deliver must be satisfied some timeمقارنة بالإنجليزية
within 35 Calendar Days of the trade date
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
4.2 - Margin
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Margin is basically credit that that an investor can use to buy more stockمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• When you buy on margin you must stake the assets you have already purchased withمقارنة بالإنجليزية
your own cash as collateral
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• The amount of Margin you can have depends on the value of your collateralمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• The value of your collateral and cash but meet the margin requirements in order toمقارنة بالإنجليزية
continue to buy on margin
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Keep in mind the value of your collateral can change if the price goes up or down and ifمقارنة بالإنجليزية
the value of your collateral/cash drops below the margin requirement you will received a Margin CallAnother way to think about it: 1. Imagine I have $1,000 in stock 2. You obtain a personal loan for another $1000 3. To get the credit you stake your $1000 in stock (if you default it goes to the lender to cover your debt) 4. You buy $1000 more stock with that loan (you now own $2000 in stocks, half in cash half on margin) 5. You will pay interest on the $1000 on margin but if your investment makes more money than the interest then you are still profiting 6. If your investment turns bad (lets say the price of your stock falls 50% and you are left with $1000) your lender can forcibly close out your positions (everything you bought in cash and staked as collateral along with what you bought on margin so that they can get the $1000 they loaned you back)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
4.3 - Margin Call
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• A Margin Call is a notice indicating you have a specific amount of time to deposit enoughمقارنة بالإنجليزية
of your own funds to meet your margin requirement (if you cannot meet the requirement the lender is entitled to sell all of your holdings to recover what you borrowed Margin Examples: This is a slightly complicated scenario that can be a little hard to follow. Give it a few reads if it doesn't make sense the first time, but basically, Margin is a credit line that you can use to buy more assets (effectively a loan backed by collateral and cash in your own account). If you buy assets with it, you have to pay back what you borrowed, whether the value of your investment goes up or down (if the investment goes up in value, you make more than you normally would, but if the investment goes down in value, you lose more than you otherwise would have without margin). This gets even more (or less maybe) complicated when you have short positions AND long positions, like most institutional investors. To have short positions, I still need to have margin, but I do not need to use it to buy stocks, It can act as a buffer if I have a short position on a stock that is increasing in value (with a short position, if the price of something I short goes up, I am losing money), and if it gets too high, it can run against my margin line, causing a margin call. GAIN: Long Positions 1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each) 2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement) 3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece 4. If the price of stock XXX goes up to %25 per share, and I sell all 20 shares, I just profited $500 (+$25 on 20 shares) a. In this case, closing the position clears me from the margin debt, as I am no longer using it in an open position b. If I had not used margin, I would have only walked away with $250 in profit ($25 per share on 10 shares), but instead I made $500, and paid back the credit, plus a little bit of interest. 5. Yay. LOSS: Long Positions 1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each) 2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement) 3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece 4. If the price of stock XXX goes down %25, bringing the value per share down to $75 a
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
share, the value of my total position is now $1500, and the value of my non-margin assets is $750, which is below the margin requirement (keep in mind, I borrowed $1000, so that is still the amount I have to pay back) 5. My lender will give me a margin call, indicating I have two business days to deposit 50$ into my account in order to meet the margin requirement a. If I have the cash to deposit the extra $50 would take my assets to $800 ($750 in stock XXX + 50$ cash)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
i. If the price of stock XXX recovered to above $80 per share, itمقارنة بالإنجليزية
could also satisfy the requirement b. If I do not have the cash to deposit, then I am in trouble, as after two days, they are allowed to liquidate (sell) the assets I bought with my own money, as well as the assets I bought on margin
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
i. Let's say this happens, all my borrowed assets are sold firstمقارنة بالإنجليزية
to cover my $1000 loan (since the price of stock XXX was only $750, it only covers $750 of my $1000 margin line
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
ii. I now have $750 left in assets of Stock X, but I still oweمقارنة بالإنجليزية
money from margin, so my lender is entitled to sell $250 work of my shares in order to get their full $1000 back
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
iii. I am now left with $500 total ($750 in 10 shares of stockمقارنة بالإنجليزية
XXX - $250) 6. Not Yay LOSS: Short and Long Positions THIS IS THE RELEVANT ONE TO GME 1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each) 2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin 3. Instead of using the margin to buy more, I instead short 10 shares of stock YYY which is at $50 a share currently (giving me $500 in extra cash), which I use to buy 5 more shares of stock X a. I am now long 15 shares of stock XXX valued at $1500 and short 10 shares of stock YYY valued at -$500 (negative $500) for a net value of $1000 b. No margin is actively committed to open positions, and I am still using my $1000 4. Now, lets say a short squeeze happens involving stock Y, causing the price to skyrocket to $200 per share a. My short position is now -$2000 (10 shares of -$200 each) 5. My net account value is now $-500 ($1500 - $2000) which is now using my margin, and because my account's value is no longer above $800, I no longer meet margin requirements so I get a margin call 6. If I cannot balance my account, the lender will liquidate my $1500 in stock XXX in order to pay the -$2000 I owe, leaving me with -$500 left in debt a. I have now defaulted, as I cannot pay the $500 7. Now that I have defaulted, the lender who gave me margin owns my short positions,
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
meaning they are now short whatever was left a. The lender can now navigate the short positions however they want (they can hold them and hope the price goes down, and cover to close them, or they can close them immediately, costing them the whole $500 I still owed) 8. GUH!
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
4.4 - Margin Calls Who Calls Who
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Margin calls happen at levels 1-4 when the cell to the left cannot meet margin requirements
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Broker Margin Calls Retail Tradersمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Prime Brokers Margin Call Brokers, Hedge Funds, and Market Makersمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• The NSCC Margin Calls Prime Brokersمقارنة بالإنجليزية
• Defaults roll up left to rightمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o If Retail Trader defaults, Broker must take on their leftover positionsمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o If Broker, Hedge Fund, or Market Maker defaults, the Prime Broker mustمقارنة بالإنجليزية
take on their leftover positions
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o If Prime Broker Defaults, the NSCC must take on Positionمقارنة بالإنجليزية
o If the NSCC Defaults, the Fed must take on the positionمقارنة بالإنجليزية
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 4 مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Retail Trader Broker Prime Broker NSCC (DTCC) Fed (JPOW)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
x Market Maker Prime Broker NSCC (DTCC) Fed (JPOW)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
x Hedge Fund Prime Broker NSCC (DTCC) Fed (JPOW)مقارنة بالإنجليزية
4.5 - Short Squeeze
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
A Short Squeeze is a market event that occurs when there is a large short position on a stock whose price rapidly increases higher than expected, normally due to a catalyst
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• During the short squeeze, the losses of those who have short positions continue toمقارنة بالإنجليزية
increase higher it goes
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Since they owe shares, the cost to cover their position increases dependingمقارنة بالإنجليزية
on how high the price goes (there is theoretically no limit on how high a stock can go)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• As market participants who are short on the stock buy to cover, supply decreases andمقارنة بالإنجليزية
demand increases, causing the price to increase even more rapidly
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
• While short sellers are scrambling to cover their positions, the rapid price change mayمقارنة بالإنجليزية
entice investors who are not short on the stock to buy it in order to make a quick profit
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
o Again, lowering supply and increasing demandمقارنة بالإنجليزية
TL;DR
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
Obligatory TL;DR (Closest thing to one is section 5)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
5 - MOASS Breakdown of "How"
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
The main point of the post is to read and understand section V, but here is section IV to act as a TL:DR 1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive short positions made through Naked Shorting 2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely 3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting) 4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules" 5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (T+21/35 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to cover (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences 6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week 7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers will have no choice but to Margin Call these participants which most likely will not be meetable due to the nature of Short Squeezes, causing them to default and be forcibly liquidated 8. The Prime-Brokers will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)
مقارنة بالإنجليزية
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)